This weekend’s college football games are the last that will be played prior to the College Football Playoff Selection Committee issuing its first set of rankings for the 2022-2023 season.
Currently, the AP Top 25 is as follows:
- Georgia (7-0)
- Ohio State (7-0)
- Tennessee (7-0)
- Michigan (7-0)
- Clemson (8-0)
- Alabama (7-1)
- TCU (7-0)
- Oregon (6-1)
- Oklahoma State (6-1)
- USC (6-1)
- Wake Forest (6-1)
- UCLA (6-1)
- Penn State (6-1)
- Utah (5-2)
- Ole Miss (7-1)
- Syracuse (6-1)
- Illinois (6-1)
- LSU (6-2)
- Kentucky (5-2)
- Cincinnati (6-1)
- North Carolina (6-1)
- Kansas State (5-2)
- Tulane (7-1)
- North Carolina State (5-2)
- South Carolina (5-2)
6 of the top 7 teams remain undefeated, leaving the Alabama Crimson Tide as the lone NCAAF program with a blemish on their win-loss record.
Legal college football betting sites have weighed in with rankings of their own based on futures odds that can be used to make a guess at what the CFP Selection Committee’s choices will consist of.
2022-2023 Odds To Win CFP National Championship
- Georgia (#1) +180
- Ohio State (#2) +180
- Alabama (#6) +350
- Michigan (#4) +1400
- Clemson (#5) +1600
- Tennessee (#3) +1600
- Oregon (#8) +4000
- USC +5000
- TCU (#7) +6000
- Oklahoma State (#9) +10000
CFP sportsbooks still believe that Alabama will be among the final four teams competing for an NCAA Football National Championship at the end of the season despite their loss to the Tennessee Volunteers.
The Vols are 7-0 and ranked third in the country following their win over Alabama, but oddsmakers are projecting an outcome where Tennessee will fall out of the championship picture at some point during the final month of the regular season.
Tennessee will play the #1 Georgia Bulldogs on November 5th, with the winner likely placing themselves into the SEC Championship Game that will take place on December 3rd.
If Alabama wins their remaining four games – and they should – they’ll play either UGA or Tennessee for the SEC Championship, where a win will almost certainly place them among the final four teams.
The above scenario leaves open the potential for there to be three one-loss SEC teams come season’s end, making it difficult for the Committee to choose the programs that will be inserted into the playoff bracket.
To add to the confusion, the #2 Ohio State Buckeyes and #4 Michigan Wolverines have yet to play each other. They are both members of the conference’s Eastern Division, so only one of them can make it to the Big Ten Championship Game.
Still, that leaves the loser as a one-loss team, with their only blemish coming at the hands of a top-four CFP contender. While that leaves plenty for the Selection Committee to ponder, the following odds for CFP National Championship betting offers a sneak preview of what could be.
Odds To Make CFP Playoffs
- Georgia (#1) -700
- Ohio State (#2) -650
- Clemson (#5) -165
- Alabama (#6) +125
- Michigan (#4) +200
- Tennessee (#3) +220
- USC (#10) +450
- Oregon (#8) +650
- TCU (#7) +700
- Oklahoma State (#9) +1600
- UCLA (#12) +1800
- North Carolina (#21) +2000
- Illinois (#17) +2200
- Mississippi (#15) +2500
- Penn State (#13) +2500
The above line is unique in that it takes action on which programs will make it to the CFP and will deliver cash payouts if any of the final four teams are wagered upon.
Georgia, Ohio State, and Clemson are featured in the negative and seem like a pretty sure bet to make the CFP bracket, but the waters get murky after that. The program with the highest probability of becoming the fourth team is Alabama, but Tennessee and Michigan are within 75 to 95 points in the moneyline, respectively.