Even during this politically bifurcated climate, fringe voters still linger in the middle until something spurs them toward the direction of one candidate or another.
Nothing is quite as impactful for those types of voters as the presidential debates. Both nominees combat each other, live on stage under the bright lights, and broadcast to the entire planet.
Weaknesses in political positions can be exposed or, in President Biden’s case, limited cognitive abilities. The June debate between Trump and Biden began a downward spiral for the DNC nominee.
Most top Democratic Party officials, and even some mega-donors and celebrities, called out Biden, demanding that he exit the race. After weeks of pressure, Biden finally stepped down, making his Vice President, Kamala Harris, the presumptive nominee.
So, where does that leave the September 10th debate, which is still on ABC’s broadcast schedule? The network released its debate rules last week, so they still intend to host the event exactly six weeks from today.
Donald Trump originally agreed to a series of debates with Joe Biden, so there is some doubt as to whether he’ll stake the stage and face Harris. In a recent interview with Fox News, Trump straddled both sides of the fence on the issue.
Legal political betting sites aren’t waffling on the issue. The following prop bet is offered at Bovada and implies that a Harris-Trump debate has a 9 out of 10 chance of occurring.
Trump-Harris Debate Odds
- Yes -900
- No +500
Bovada will grade success or failure based on whether the event takes place before November 5th. There is no attachment to the September 10th date in order for the prop to cash in.
Harris and her campaign have been chomping at the bit to hit the debate stage since her rise to candidacy.
“I think that voters deserve to see the split screen that exists in this race on a debate stage, and so I’m ready…”
Kamala Harris
Trump initially backed out of any future debates with Harris but yesterday indicated that he would “probably” participate. The GOP nominee has also expressed frustration with ABC being the host, calling them out as a “fake news” organization.
The overall odds of becoming the next President of the United States still favor Trump, but the gap has closed significantly since Harris entered the race. Here are the current odds to win for 2024.
US Presidential Election 2024 Winner
- Donald Trump Sr. -165
- Kamala Harris +130
- (Bovada)
Odds to Win the 2024 US Presidential Election
- Donald Trump Sr. -155
- Kamala Harris +140
- (BetOnline)
Just before Biden dropped out on July 21st, Trump held a several-hundred-point lead. Now, both 2024 candidates are trending toward even, with Harris surging in the odds over the weekend.
The Trump campaign must act soon to stop the bleeding, and the debate is as good an opportunity as any. However, with the event scheduled for six weeks out, the polls and odds could tell a completely different story by then.